The study of escalation in criminal careers: (II) analyzing trajectories over time - a mixed model approach

Escalation in crime seriousness continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999 we examine the individual trajectories of these scores from conviction to conviction. These individual trajectories were then analyzed using a selection of longitudinal mixed models, with age and sex used as covariates. The methodology provides new results in developing the understanding of escalation and its variability over time and conviction.