Exploring paradigms of crime reduction: an empirical longitudinal study

Using Danish registers for a 1980 birth cohort of 29,944 males with parental information and following up these cases for 25 years, the study considers four paradigms of crime reduction (parental child rearing, structural factors around adolescence, locality and individual resources). Focusing on offenders with first-time convictions for shoplifting (n = 1,989), for burglary (n = 1,324) and for violence (n = 1,901), all four paradigms made a contribution to risk of first-time offending for all three crimes. The counter-factual analysis indicated that a focus on structural issues within a society may have more widespread benefits, but the assumed causal links need to be further explored. The use of population registers, under controlled conditions, provides an important window on criminal careers.