How Places Influence Crime: The Impact of Surrounding Areas on Neighbourhood Burglary Rates in a British City

Burglary prevalence within neighbourhoods is well understood but the risk from
bordering areas is under-theorised and under-researched. If it were possible to fix a
neighbourhood’s location but substitute its surrounding areas, one might expect to
see some influence on its crime rate. However, by treating surrounding areas as independent
observations, ecological studies assume that identical neighbourhoods with
markedly different surroundings are equivalent. If not, knowing the impact of different
peripheries would have significance for crime prevention, land use planning and
other policy domains. This paper tests whether knowledge of the demographic
make-up of surrounding areas can improve on the prediction of a neighbourhood’s
burglary rate based solely on its internal socio-demographics. Results identify significant
between-area effects with certain types of periphery exerting stronger influences
than others. The advantages and drawbacks of the spatial error and predictor lag
model used in the analysis are discussed and areas for further research defined.