Living in a disadvantaged area, poverty, ethnic minorities and crime: A longitudinal study of criminality among 15 to 23 year old Danish men born in 1980

This study investigates the possible influence from living in a disadvantaged area on young people’s first time crime conviction after taking into account their economic, ethnic and social background. A Cox model is used to analyse the longitudinal observations of population-based registers covering all boys born in 1980 in Denmark. This total national birth cohort involving 29,944 males and their parents was followed until 2003. The three main results of the study showed that (1) family background and upbringing were significant precursors of young people’s first time crime convictions. Persons from ethnicminorities or thosewho had experienced parental long-time unemployment, parental lack of professional education, family separation or out-of-home care, domestic violence, had an increased risk of first-time crime convictions of shoplifting, burglary, and violence. (2) Individual risk factors were also significant predictors of subsequent first-time convictions. Person-years with individual risk factors such as youth unemployment, lack of education, poverty, and alcohol abuse, are correlatedwith an increased risk of subsequent convictions of shoplifting, burglary, and violence. (3) The years living in a disadvantaged area turned out to be a significant predictor of first-time crime convictions of shoplifting, burglary, and violence,when taking account of all the above mentioned family risk factors and individual risk factors. However, the counterfactual reduction in convictions was very limited compared to family background or individual risk factors. The policy implications of these results will be discussed.