Homicide in England and Wales: Which types of homicide are declining and which are not?

In recent years, there has been an impressive decline in the number of recorded homicides in England and Wales. From a peak of 762 incidents in 2001/2, the annual numbers have declined to 596 in 2009/10. However, it is important to know which types of homicide are involved in this decline, and which are not. Are intimate homicides against women declining, or perhaps knife crime against strangers? Is the decline equal in all groups? We investigate this issue using the Home Office Homicide Index from 1998-2008. The identification of declining types is complex, as there are potentially many variables involved - the age, gender and ethnicity of the victim and offender, and the relationship between them, and the motivation of the homicide and the method used. We compare and contrast two methodologies for addressing this complex problem - multi-way log-linear modelling (Bishop et al, 1973) and groupbased trajectory modelling of crime rates (Stults 2010).