Enduring Risk Revisited: Do Ex-offenders ever become Like Non-offenders?

Kurlychek and his colleagues have produced pioneering work to determine whether individuals whose last criminal conviction occurred many years ago exhibit a higher risk of acquiring a further conviction than do individuals with no record at all. This important work needs replication in another time and context. It also needs to be challenged on theoretical, methodological and empirical grounds. Our present study uses criminal conviction records from a one in 13 sample of offenders in England and Wales born in 1953 and 1958. Our findings broadly support the Kurlychek et al work but the approach needs modification. We consider the practical implications of our findings.