Assessing transitions in criminal career behaviour: methodological approaches

A crucial problem in analysing criminal career behaviour patterns is in determining the lengths and start times of periods of offending stability. For example, an offender might start out in shoplifting, then move to theft and receiving, before ending his career with violence. These different types of offending will in general have lengths and start points are likely to vary between individuals. We contrast two approaches, both using the idea of local likelihood, to examine the most likely ages of transition.