Evaluating Neighbourhood Policing using Bayesian Hierarchical Models: No Cold Calling in Peterborough, England

As part of a wider Neighbourhood Policing strategy, Cambridgeshire Constabulary, in common with other Police Forces in the UK, instituted "No Cold Calling" (NCC) zones to reduce cold calling (unsolicited visits to sell products or services), which is often associated with rogue trading and distraction burglary. This paper evaluates the NCC targeted areas chosen in 2005-6 and reports whether they experienced a measurable impact on their burglary rates in the period up to 2008. Time series data for burglary at the Census Output Area level is analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach, addressing issues often encountered in small area quantitative policy evaluation. Results reveal a positive NCC impact on stabilising burglary rates in the targeted areas.