The Risk of Escalation in Serious Crime for Kidnap Offenders: A Modelling Approach

Liu, Jiayi and Francis, Brian and Soothill, Keith (2007) The Risk of Escalation in Serious Crime for Kidnap Offenders: A Modelling Approach. NCRM Working Paper. ESRC National Centre for Research Methods. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Kidnapping is a rare offence and is also rarely considered by researchers. We extracted from the England and Wales Offenders Index all 7587 offenders (93% males and 7% females) convicted of kidnapping from 1979 to 2001. We examined the time from the first conviction for kidnapping to some specific subsequent serious crimes: a subsequent kidnap, murder, manslaughter, and rape of a female. Two survival analysis procedures - the Kaplan-Meier estimates as a nonparametric procedure, and the Cox proportional hazards model as a semi-parametric model - were used. Thus, one can estimate that 5 out of every 100 kidnap offenders convicted of kidnapping will be reconvicted for this offence. In contrast, one in every 100 kidnap offenders will be convicted of homicide after 20 years and close to 2 out of every 100 will be convicted of rape of a female in 20 years. The number of previous conviction is a significant risk factor for each of these serious reconvictions. Kidnappers are over 30 times more likely than males in the general population to be convicted of homicide and four times more likely than sex offenders. There should be, therefore, more focus on kidnappers as a potentially dangerous set of offenders.

Item Type:Working Paper (NCRM Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:kidnapping, homicide, rape, murder, criminal career, violent crime, offending risk, NCRMpublication
Subjects:1. Frameworks for Research and Research Designs > 1.20 Secondary Analysis > 1.20.3 Analysis of official statistics
5. Quantitative Data Handling and Data Analysis > 5.3 Small Area Estimation
5. Quantitative Data Handling and Data Analysis > 5.6 Multilevel Modelling
5. Quantitative Data Handling and Data Analysis > 5.17 Quantitative Approaches (other)
8. Research Management and Impact > 8.9 Research Management and Impact (other)
ID Code:473
Deposited By: NCRM users
Deposited On:05 Dec 2008 18:29
Last Modified:12 Oct 2010 17:39

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