Disentangling age, period and cohort effects in criminal typologies

Liu, J. and Francis, B. and Soothill, K. (2007) Disentangling age, period and cohort effects in criminal typologies. In: European Society of Criminology Conference, 26 - 29 September 2007, Bologna, italy. (Unpublished)

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A classic problem in the statistical analysis of longitudinal data is the ability to separate out age, period and cohort effects. This is particularly relevant in criminology, where it is important to disentangle social change (different generations behaving differently) from year effects (the immediate effect of world events, economics and government criminal justice policy)while taking account of thewell-known age-crime relationship. We explore this problem in the context of patterns of offending behaviour. In the analysis of the conviction histories of six cohorts of offenders in England and Wales,we carry out a latent class analysis of five-year periods for all cohorts, identifying patterns of offences which co-occur. We then examine the estimated proportions of each cohort and each five year period, with the intention of identifying generational effects in cluster sizes. We explore statistical modelling approaches to this problem, and present preliminary findings.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: 5. Quantitative Data Handling and Data Analysis > 5.5 Regression Methods
Depositing User: L-W-S user
Date Deposited: 20 Feb 2012 15:19
Last Modified: 14 Jul 2021 13:55
URI: https://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2148

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