Can we trust the polls? Reflections on the 2015 Election Poll miss

Sturgis, Patrick and Moon, Nick and Kuha, Jouni and Jennings, Will (2016) Can we trust the polls? Reflections on the 2015 Election Poll miss. [Video] (Unpublished)

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Official URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VL8uNSLo_Q

Abstract

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labor at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative majority has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election.

Item Type:Video
Subjects:2. Data Collection > 2.3 Survey and Questionnaire Design
2. Data Collection > 2.3 Survey and Questionnaire Design > 2.3.10 Assessment instruments
3. Data Quality and Data Management > 3.3 Quality in Quantitative Research > 3.3.3 Total survey error
3. Data Quality and Data Management > 3.4 Measurement Error
ID Code:3936
Deposited By: NCRM users
Deposited On:06 Sep 2016 14:46
Last Modified:09 Sep 2016 22:55

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